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Ottawa, ON, January 15, 2016 -According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales edged lower in December 2015 compared to the previous month, but held above year-ago levels.

Highlights:

• National home sales edged back by 0.6% from November to December.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was up 10% compared to December 2014.
• The number of newly listed homes rose 2.2% from November to December.
• The Canadian housing market remains balanced overall.
• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 7.3% year-over-year in December.
• The national average sale price rose 12% on a year-over-year basis in December; excluding Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, it increased by 5.4%.

The number of homes trading hands via MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations edged back by 0.6 percent in December 2015 compared to November. Activity nonetheless remains close to a six-year high.

December sales were down from the previous month in slightly more than half of all local markets. Monthly sales declines in Calgary, Edmonton, the York Region of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Hamilton-Burlington offset monthly activity gains recorded elsewhere.

“An increasingly short supply of listings in Vancouver and Toronto blunted the impact of changes to mortgage regulations announced in December that were aimed at cooling these housing markets,” said CREA President Pauline Aunger. “Buyers there had been expected to bring forward their purchase decisions before new regulations take effect in February 2016, but they faced a growing shortage of supply. Meanwhile, supply is ample in many other major urban markets, particularly those where buyers have become cautious amid economic uncertainty. All real estate is local, and REALTORS® remain your best source for information about sales and listings where you live or might like to in the future.”

“December mirrored the main themes of 2015, with strong sales activity and price growth across much of British Columbia and Ontario offsetting declines in activity among oil producing regions,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “The recent decline and uncertain outlook for oil prices means that housing market prospects are unlikely to improve in the near term in regions where job market prospects are tied to oil production.”

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales rose 10.0 percent on a year-over-year basis in December 2015. Activity was up compared to December 2014 in about 60 percent of all local markets, led by the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, the GTA and Montreal.

Sales activity in the fourth quarter of 2015 advanced by 2.0% quarter-over-quarter and hit the highest quarterly level in six years. Annual home sales in 2015 were up 5.5 from the previous year and reached the second-highest annual level on record – just 3.0% short of the annual record set in 2007.

The number of newly listed homes rose 2.2 percent in December compared to November. The monthly increase built on the 3.3 percent gain logged in November and lifted new supply to the highest monthly level in almost six years. December’s increase was driven by gains in the Fraser Valley, Calgary, Edmonton, the GTA and Montreal.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 55.5 percent in December – its lowest reading since March 2015. A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 percent is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively.

The ratio was within this range in about 40 percent of all local housing markets in December. Slightly more than one-third of local markets recorded a ratio above 60 percent, almost all of which are located in British Columbia and Ontario.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 5.4 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of December

2015, unchanged from November and the lowest level in nearly six years. The national figure is being pulled lower by increasing market tightness in B.C. and Ontario. Many of these markets, particularly around Greater Vancouver and the GTA, ended 2015 with a record low or near-record low number of homes listed for sale.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 7.27 percent on a year-over-year basis in December – the largest gain in over five years. Year-over-year price growth accelerated for single family homes and townhouse/row units but slowed for apartment units.

Two-storey single family homes continue to post the biggest year-over-year price gains (+9.15 percent), followed by one-storey single family homes (+6.63 percent), townhouse/row units (+6.12 percent) and apartment units (+4.96 percent).

Year-over-year price growth continued to range widely among housing markets tracked by the index. Greater Vancouver (+18.87 percent) and the Fraser Valley (14.35 percent) posted the largest gains, followed closely by Greater Toronto (+10.01 percent). By comparison, Victoria and Vancouver Island prices posted year-over-year gains in the range from six to eight percent.

By contrast, prices retreated by about two percent on a year-over-year basis in Calgary and Saskatoon and by nearly four percent in Regina. While the home price declines in Calgary and Saskatoon are a fairly recent trend, prices in Regina have been trending lower since early 2014.

Prices crept higher on a year-over-year basis in Ottawa (+0.62 percent), rose modestly in Greater Montreal (+1.81 percent) and outstripped overall consumer price inflation in Greater Moncton (+3.88 percent).

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides a better gauge of price trends than is possible using averages because it is not affected by changes in the mix of sales activity the way that average price is.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in December 2015 was $454,342, up 12.0 percent on a year-over-year basis.

The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which are among Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. If these two housing markets are excluded from calculations, the average is a more modest $336,994 and the year-over-year gain is reduced to 5.4 percent. Even then, the gain reflects a tug of war between strong average price gains in housing markets around the GTA and the Lower Mainland of British Columbia versus flat or declining average prices elsewhere in Canada. If British Columbia and Ontario are excluded from calculations, the average price slips even lower to $294,363, representing a year-over-year decline of 2.2 percent.

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PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 109,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics.

For more information, please contact:
Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E-mail: pleduc@crea.ca

Ottawa, ON, December 15, 2015 – According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales were up on a month-over-month basis in November 2015.

Highlights:

• National home sales rose by 1.8% from October to November.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was up 10.9% compared to November 2014.
• The number of newly listed homes was up 3.1% from October to November.
• The Canadian housing market remains balanced overall.
• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 7.1% year-over-year in November.
• The national average sale price rose 10.2% on a year-over-year basis in November; excluding Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, it increased by 3.4%.

The number of homes trading hands via MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations rose by 1.8 percent in November 2015 compared to October to reach its highest monthly level in six years.

There was a fairly even split between the number of markets where sales posted a monthly increase and those where sales declined. The national increase was again led by monthly sales gains in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia and in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).

“Recently announced changes to mortgage regulations will likely boost sales activity in the short term, as buyers jump off the fence to beat the changes before they take effect next year,” said CREA President Pauline Aunger. “Even so, some housing markets stand to be affected by the changes more than others. All real estate is local, and REALTORS® remain your best source for information about sales and listings where you live or might like to in the future.”

“Changes to mortgage regulations taking effect in mid-February next year appear aimed at cooling the Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto housing markets,” said said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Minimum down payments will be going up for homes that sell for more than half a million dollars, so larger more expensive housing markets will be affected most. Unfortunately, the regulatory changes will also cause unintended collateral damage to housing markets beyond Toronto and Vancouver, including places that are facing economic headwinds from the collapse in oil prices.”

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales in November 2015 rose 10.9 percent on a year-over-year basis compared to November 2014 and were up from year-ago levels in two-thirds of all local markets. The increase was again led by the Lower Mainland and GTA. Activity was down sharply in the Calgary region compared to what were historically high levels posted prior to the collapse in oil prices.

The number of newly listed homes rose 3.1 percent in November compared to October, led by the Lower Mainland, Calgary, Edmonton, Kingston and Ottawa.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 57.3 percent in November compared to 58 percent in October. A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 percent is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively.

The ratio was within this range in slightly fewer than half of all local housing markets in November. Of the remainder, more markets recorded a ratio above 60 percent than fell below 40 percent. Markets where demand is tight relative to supply are located almost exclusively in British Columbia and Ontario.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 5.4 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of November 2015, down from the 5.5 months recorded in October and the lowest level in nearly six years. The national figure is being pulled lower by increasing market tightness in B.C. and Ontario.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 7.11 percent on a year-over-year basis in November – the largest gain in over five years. Year-over-year price growth accelerated for all property types tracked by the index.

Two-storey single family homes continue to post the biggest year-over-year price gains (+8.88 percent), followed by one-storey single family homes (+6.42 percent), townhouse/row units (+5.43 percent) and apartment units (+5.22 percent).

Year-over-year price growth varied among housing markets tracked by the index. Greater Vancouver (+17.83 percent) and the Fraser Valley (+12.36 percent) posted the largest gains, followed closely by Greater Toronto (+10.29 percent).

By comparison, Victoria and Vancouver Island prices saw year-over-year gains that ranged between six and eight percent in November.

Prices edged down by about two percent on a year-over-year basis in Calgary and Saskatoon and fell by nearly five percent in Regina. While the home price declines in Calgary and Saskatoon are a fairly recent trend, prices in Regina have been trending lower since early 2014.

Prices edged higher on a year-over-year basis in Ottawa (+0.68 percent), rose modestly in Greater Montreal (+1.61 percent) and continued to gain strength in Greater Moncton (+4.81 percent).

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides a better gauge of price trends than is possible using averages because it is not affected by changes in the mix of sales activity the way that average price is.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in November 2015 was $456,186, up 10.2 percent on a year-over-year basis.

The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which are among Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. If these two markets are excluded from calculations, the average is a more modest $338,969 and the year-over-year gain is reduced to 3.4 percent. Even then, the gain reflects a tug of war between strong average price gains in housing markets around the GTA and the Lower Mainland of British Columbia versus flat or declining average prices elsewhere in Canada. If British Columbia and Ontario are excluded from calculations, the average price slips even lower to $302,477, representing a year-over-year decline of 4.7 percent.

- 30 -

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 109,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics.

For more information, please contact:

Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E-mail: pleduc@crea.ca

The Bank of Canada announced on July 15^th, 2015 that it was lowering its trend-setting target overnight lending rate from 0.75 per cent to 0.50 per cent. The move follows another cut of the same size in January.

The Bank indicated that it expects the Canadian economy shrank modestly in the first half of the year but has begun to rebound and will gain steam. While its decision to lower interest rates is aimed at supporting business investment and exports, revisions to the Bank’s economic forecast also indicate that lower interest rates will also boost consumer spending and housing activity.

The Bank of Canada also pared back its inflation outlook due to a number of factors which are unlikely to reverse themselves in the near future. That means short-term interest rates are almost certain to remain on hold this year and over 2016.

Recall that when the Bank of Canada previously cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in January, Canada’s largest private banks lowered their lending rates by less than that. The same will likely hold true this time around. Accordingly, the Bank of Canada’s most recent interest rate cut is unlikely to cause consumer borrowing and mortgage lending to catch fire, especially given the currently high level of household debt.

The bottom line has shifted from “lower for longer” to “even lower for even longer”. All other things being equal, this is even more supportive for the housing market.

As of July 15^th, 2015, the advertised five-year lending rate stood at 4.64 per cent, unchanged from the previous Bank rate announcement on May 27^th, and down 0.15 percentage points from one year ago.

The next interest rate announcement will be on September 9^th, 2015 and the next update to the Bank of Canada’s economic forecast will be on October 21^st 2015.

(CREA 07/15/2015)

The Bank of Canada announced on May 27^th, 2015 that it was keeping its trend-setting overnight lending rate at 0.75 per cent.

Economic growth in the first quarter was weaker than the Bank expected, but it “expects a return to solid growth in the second quarter.” It still believes that exports and business investment will pick up and that the Canadian economy will grow by just under 2 per cent this year.

The Bank thinks the economic fallout from low oil prices will be neatly limited to the first quarter. If it proves to be longer lasting, the Bank may downgrade its economic outlook again and further delay raising interest rates. Financial markets currently expect the Bank to start raising interest rates in the second half of 2016.

The Bank sets interest rates so that inflation stays around 2% (plus or minus 1%). Economic growth plays an important role in the Bank’s assessment of the outlook for inflation. Its announcement said, “seeing through the various temporary factors, the Bank estimates that the underlying trend of inflation is 1.6 to 1.8 per cent, consistent with persistent slack in the economy.” This makes clear the Bank has little reason to raise its trend-setting Bank rate anytime soon.

The Bank’s announcement ended by saying “a number of complex adjustments are under way.” and suggested “their net effect will need to be assessed as more data become available in the months ahead.” In the meantime, interest rates will remain supportive for Canadian home sales and prices.

As of May 27^th, 2015, the advertised five-year lending rate stood at 4.64 per cent, unchanged from the previous Bank rate announcement on April 15th and down 0.15 percentage points from one year ago.

The next interest rate announcement will be on July 15th, 2015 and will be accompanied by an update to the Monetary Policy report.

(CREA 05/27/2015)

The Bank of Canada announced on April 15^th, 2015 it was keeping its trend-setting overnight lending rate at 0.75 per cent.

While official economic growth statistics for the first quarter of 2015 won’t be available until the end of May, the Bank estimates that Canada’s economy was stuck in neutral. Governor Poloz had already telegraphed as much in an interview with the Financial Times and it should come as no surprise given the impact of the drop in oil prices this year.

In its interest rate announcement, the Bank made it clear that it thinks the worst of the damage to the Canadian economy from lower oil prices is behind us. It expects economic activity to bounce back in the second and third quarters even more strongly than previously predicted due mainly to an anticipated increase in non-energy exports.

The Bank’s forecast is perhaps optimistic regarding near term economic prospects given, since there is scant evidence that non-energy exports are in fact ramping up. Moreover, its Monetary Policy Report (MPR) which accompanied the announcement acknowledged that “the full impact of the decline in oil prices has yet to show up in employment statistics.”

The rebalanced forecast allows the Bank to maintain its view that inflation will return to its two per cent target by the end of 2016. At this point, that means the goalposts for the first interest rate hike have not moved. Most Bay Street economists expect the Bank to keep interest rates on hold until late 2016.

That said, the Bank identified greater than anticipated economic fallout from oil prices as the number one risk to its forecast. If damage to the Canadian economy from lower oil prices worsen or drag on for longer than anticipated, it may be forced to again downgrade its next economic forecast and perhaps trim interest rates in July.

As of April 15^th, 2015, the advertised five-year lending rate stood at 4.64 per cent, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous Bank rate announcement on March 4^th, and down 0.35 percentage points from one year ago.

The next interest rate announcement will be on May 27^th, 2015. The next update to the Monetary Policy Report will be on July 15^th, 2015.

(CREA 04/15/2015)